By John H. Foote
Based on a study of the history of the Academy Awards, inside knowledge and buzz, my own guy instincts and who I hope will be in the Oscar race, the Foote Forecast will appear every two weeks with updates in the categories listed. Understand Best Animated, Documentary and Live Action Shorts are not listed because I do not see enough of them to make an honest judgement, nor will I try Best International Feature until the films are shortlisted sometime in December.
As new films and performances are premiered the lists will continue to change and evolve until Oscar night at which point I will make my final predictions. Unlike some other critics, I will include films not yet released because they must be considered and given Oscar history can easily be discussed and included.
One aspect still to be decided, will The Lion King be declared an animated film and compete in that category … the film was created by animators in a computer. Have to wait and see what they decide.
All are in order of their chance of winning. The categories I did not cover, will be listed in the next edition, when there is a bit more chatter and buzz about them.
The breakdown for the lists will be Frontrunners, Potential Nominees and Dark Horses.
BEST PICTURE
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- The Irishman
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Marriage Story
- Jo Jo Rabbit
- 1917
- A Hidden Life
- Joker
- Just Mercy
- The Farewell
- Ford vs. Ferrari
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Little Women
- Parasite
- A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
- Rocketman
- The Two Popes
- Bombshell
- The Ballad of Richard Jewell
- The Avengers: Endgame
BEST DIRECTOR
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- Martin Scorsese for The Irishman
- Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story
- Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Sam Mendes for 1917
- Terrence Malick for A Hidden Life
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Todd Phillips for Joker
- Taiku Waitit for Jo Jo Rabbit
- Greta Gerwig for Little Women
- Marielle Heller for A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
- Bong Joon Ho for Parasite
- Lulu Wang for The Farewell
- Clint Eastwood for The Ballad of Richard Jewell
BEST ACTOR
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- Joaquin Phoenix in Joker
- Adam Driver in Marriage Story
- Leonardo Di Caprio in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems
- Taron Egerton in Rocketman
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Robert De Niro in The Irishman
- Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes
- Christian Bale in Ford vs. Ferrari
- Paul Walter Hauser in The Ballad of Richard Jewell
- Eddie Murphy in Dolemite is My Name
BEST ACTRESS
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- Renee Zellweger in Judy
- Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story
- Charlize Theron in Bombshell
- Cynthia Erivo in Harriet
- Awkwafina in The Farewell
- Saorise Ronan in Little Women
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Jodie Turner Smith in Queen and Slim
- Alfre Woodard in Clemency
- Elisabeth Moss in Her Smell
- Julianne Moore in Gloria Bell
- Beanie Feldstein in Book Smart
- Lupita Nyongo in Us
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Al Pacino in The Irishman
- Joe Pesci in The Irishman
- Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
- Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Alan Alda in Marriage Story
- Taiku Waititi in Jo Jo Rabbit
- Jamie Foxx in Just Mercy
- Robert Downey Jr. in The Avengers: Endgame
- John Lithgow in Bombshell
- Jamie Bell in Rocketman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- Scarlett Johansson in Jo Jo Rabbit
- Laura Dern in Marriage Story
- Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers
- Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Shuzhen Zhao in The Farewell
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Penelope Cruz in Pain and Glory
- Meryl Streep in Little Women
- Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey
- Jennifer Hudson in Cats
- Florence Pugh in Little Women
- Margot Robbie in Bombshell
- Judi Dench in Cats
- Nicole Kidman in Bombshell
BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- The Irishman
- The Two Popes
- Jo Jo Rabbit
- Just Mercy
- Joker
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- The Ballad of Richard Jewell
- Motherless Brooklyn
- Little Women
- Judy
- Hustlers
- Toy Story 4
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Marriage Story
- Parasite
- Pain and Glory
- 1917
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Bombshell
- A Hidden Life
- The Farewell
- Book Smart
- Uncut Gems
- The Lighthouse
- Rocketman
- Midsommar
- Yesterday
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- Toy Story 4
- Abominable
- Missing Link
- Frozen 2
- Klaus
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
- Weathering with You
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
(FRONTRUNNERS)
- The Irishman
- 1917
- The Lighthouse
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- A Hidden Life
(POTENTIAL NOMINEES)
- Jo Jo Rabbit
- Joker
- Ad Astra
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
- The Aeronauts
- Cats
- Little Women
John H. Foote is a well-recognized Canadian film critic/historian who has been an active critic for 30 years. His deep love for the movies began at a very young age. He began his career as co-host of the popular TV show Reel to Real where he remained for nine years. While on TV he began dabbling in education, eventually ascending to Director of the Toronto Film School, where he also taught film history. After leaving the college to care for his wife, he returned to teaching at Humber College where he taught both Film History and Method Acting Theory. John has written two books: “Clint Eastwood – Evolution of a Filmmaker” and the upcoming “Spielberg – American Film Visionary”. He is currently working on two books, one about the films of the seventies and another on the films of Martin Scorsese. Through his career he has worked in TV, radio, print and the web. John has interviewed everyone in the industry (more than 300 interviews) except Jack Nicholson, he says sadly. Highlights include Martin Scorsese, Tom Cruise, Meryl Streep Robert Duvall, Jane Fonda, Francis Ford Coppola and Kathryn Bigelow.
