Way Too Early Golden Globe Predictions Part I: The Films

By Alan Hurst

The prognosticators are out in full force, so here’s a first attempt to predict the ever-unpredictable nominations for the Hollywood Foreign Press Golden Globe Awards. The Golden Globes are known as the “fun” awards. They’re a big party, there’s food and alcohol so the atmosphere is a little looser and the show – with the right host(s) – can be fun.

But because they still split categories into Drama and Comedy/Musical they’re not entirely useful as a barometer to help predict the Oscar nominations. The classification of films would be easier if the Globes just divided between Drama and Comedy and then musical productions could be slotted where they make the most sense. This year producers for A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody have asked that they are considered in the drama category, but these are both films with a considerable amount of music, so their chances would be better in the Comedy/Musical slot – but neither are actually comedies. It just gets silly.

With that, some mid-autumn predictions:

Best Picture – Drama

• A Star Is Born
• Black Panther
• BlacKkKlansman
• First Man
• If Beale Street Could Talk

Bohemian Rhapsody may bump one of these off the list. Right now, of course, it’s anybody’s guess as to the actual winner, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Globes shared their love with A Star Is Born, just as they did back in 1976 with Streisand’s version (but of course it was competing in the Comedy/Musical category).

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical

• Crazy Rich Asians
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Love, Simon
• Mary Poppins Returns

Some of these still need to be reviewed, but based on advance buzz and trailers for some, these all have a shot at making the final five. I’m thinking that Mary Poppins Returns may be the one to beat here. And I’m hoping we don’t see Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again slip in, but it’s a possibility.

Best Director

• Damian Chazelle for First Man
• Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born
• Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk
• Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
• Rob Marshall for Mary Poppins Returns

I’m not totally convinced Rob Marshall will make the list for Mary Poppins Returns, but if the film hits big he’s going to be getting a lot of accolades for pulling it off. If he’s not there, then Ryan Coogler may get the nod for Black Panther. I’m thinking the ultimate winner may be Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born. The Globes love honouring actors who succeed with directing (other past winners include Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Richard Attenborough, Barbra Streisand, Clint Eastwood, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, and Ben Affleck). It helps that he pulled it off.

Best Actor – Drama

• Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born
• Ryan Gosling for First Man
• Ethan Hawke for First Reformed
• Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased
• Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody

Will First Man’s lukewarm box-office hurt Gosling? Will Malek breakthrough as Freddie Mercury? Not sure – but right now it looks like Cooper could have a pretty good night at the Globes.

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

• Christian Bale for Vice
• Lin Manuel-Miranda for Mary Poppins Returns
• Viggo Mortensen for Green Book
• Robert Redford for The Old Man and the Gun
• Nick Robinson for Love, Simon

It was a challenge coming up with five possible – and worthy – nominees. In terms of a winner, I think there are two ways for the Globes to go here: sentimental (Redford) or merit (Mortensen). My money is on Mortensen.

Best Actress – Drama

• Glenn Close for The Wife
• Viola Davis for Windows
• Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born
• Nicole Kidman for Destroyer
• Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

This is the toughest category to predict. In addition to these five, others who could very easily make the list of nominees include Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots, Julia Roberts for Ben is Back, and Toni Collette for Hereditary. I’m hoping that this will ultimately go to McCarthy, but I think the Globes are going to honour Lady Gaga again (she won a few years ago for her work in American Horror Story – Hotel) and she’s wonderful in A Star Is Born.

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical

• Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns
• Olivia Colman for The Favourite
• Lily James for Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
• Charlize Theron for Tully
• Constance Wu for Crazy Rich Asians

Like Best Actor Comedy/Musical, the pickings are slim after these five. I think this is going to be a two-way race between Blunt and Colman and either could pull it off. Right now, I’d say Colman is the favourite (no pun intended), but if Mary Poppins Returns becomes a juggernaut, then it’s Blunt for the win.

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali for Green Book
• Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy
• Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

This is a strong category this year with several other actors just bubbling under the five I’ve named here. Right now, I think Chalamet has the strongest chance for Beautiful Boy, but we can’t write off veteran Sam Elliot who is getting major attention for his work as Bradley Cooper’s brother in A Star Is Born.

Best Supporting Actress

• Clair Foy for First Man
• Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
• Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots
• Emma Stone for The Favourite
• Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians

Again, another example of a strong category when you can only pick five and that leaves Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased, Amy Adams for Vice, and Rachel Weisz for The Favourite out of the running. Plus, there’s always the chance that The Globes will throw a nomination Meryl Streep’s way for her as yet unseen work as Mary Poppins’ cousin in Mary Poppins Returns. Of this group, Regina King looks to be the front-runner.