ABSOLUTELY FINAL WRITTEN IN STONE (MAYBE) OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM JOHN

By John H. Foote

In 2001 I lay in a hospital broken and in great pain, the result of a terrible head on car accident. Eighteen breaks in my legs, three in my pelvis, my entire rib cage shattered, my right arm badly broken through the elbow, my heart had been crushed, I had fixators in my pelvis, knee and ankles and existed for the moment the nurse walked in with morphine to ease the screaming pain. My wife came to see me every day and wept that she could not take the pain away, though her presence helped. Not even the smiling faces of my two little girls helped my foul mood, brought on by pain. I missed them, I adored them and I could not be with them at home for a very long time and that was just hitting me I think.

The Oscars were on that night and Sherri thought I would be excited about that. The nominations had been announced the day before the accident but, while I knew who was nominated, I had not done any writing about them. I had been in a three and a half week coma. Output of work, zero.

I smiled along with her thinking about the awards that night but the truth was I could not have cared less. My entire life had changed in an instant and I was not thinking about the Oscars. Oh sure I figured Tom Hanks would become the first three time Best Actor winner for Cast Away (2000), but really I did not care.

Why do I feel the same way exactly 20 years later?

The world has changed forever since the last time the Academy Awards were handed out, and the film industry has been forever altered. It is not just Parasite (2019) winning Best Picture and Best Director forever changing the face of the industry, but the pandemic has permitted Netflix, Amazon and the other streaming networks to become major Oscar players. Remember when Miramax exploded into the Oscar firmament? Feels like Netflix is doing the same thing, and yet though they dominated this year, they were clearly being snubbed in other areas too.

Does it make sense that in a year filled with black nominees and others of color Spike Lee, arguably the most important black filmmaker in the history of movies, was snubbed this year for one of his greatest films, easily one of the best films of the year?

Produced by Netflix, Da Five Bloods earned excellent reviews and was an early frontrunner for Best Picture and was thought might bring Lee that ever elusive Oscar for Best Director. Its star, Delroy Lindo, gave a career best performance and was thought to be the frontrunner for Best Actor, while Chadwick Boseman seemed headed for Best Supporting Actor. Within a few months it all changed, and despite the brilliance and daring of the film, it received a single nomination, for its score.

The four acting categories are filled with actors of color, refreshing for sure, but is it just? Is it overkill for years of white domination?

For Best Actor, Chadwick Boseman was nominated for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Steven Yeun for Minari, the first Asian best actor nominee. The superb performance of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal as a hard rock drummer suddenly gone deaf made him the first Muslim actor so nominated, leaving Anthony Hopkins for The Father and Gary Oldman in Mank the only white nominees. Tom Hanks, in one of his finest performances in News of the World, was snubbed as was the aforementioned Delroy Lindo, astounding in Da Five Bloods.

African American actresses Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holliday are both up for Best Actress, and both have a solid chance of winning in this loaded, and unpredictable category.

Three black actors are up for their work for Best Supporting Actor, the frontrunner Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah, his co-star LaKeith Stanfield for the same film, and Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami. Those three ran the total up to eight of 15 nominations going to non-white actors, a huge accomplishment.

My hope is that the Academy truly believes in who they are nominating.

And of course history was made when two women – Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) – were nominated for Best Director, the first time more than a single has been so nominated.

A year of change, a historical year, but all deserving?

News of the World was the best film I saw this year and Hanks or Lindo would be my choice for Best Actor. Best Actress is spot on, nothing to change there. Best Supporting Actor, some tough calls, but good for the most part.

Best Supporting Actress – Glenn Close is in the sentimental spot for Hillbilly Elegy, and if she wins I might gouge my eyes out. A good performance, maybe, but great? Hardly. Amanda Seyfried in Mank, and brilliant, was the early frontrunner until the wonderful and daring Maria Bakalova showed up in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm giving a comedic performance for the absolute ages. Olivia Colman was always in the discussion in The Father, but now support has swung to Asian actress Youn Yuh-jung in the acclaimed Minari.

Who knows this year, it really is a crap shoot, unlike any year before it, or will we see some surprises? Could it be that most of the public just have not seen the films? I truly believe we are due a couple of doozies. Here are my reluctant predictions. Forgive me for not being more excited about the Oscars, but awards season began eight months ago at TIFF, and we are four months away from TIFF 2021. The Academy and COVID have made it tough to care.

Sorry.

Oh and as I do not see all the shorts or documentary shorts, I do not guess at them. No point and unfair to the films.

BEST PICTURE

• Who Will Win — In an upset The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Who Might Win — The frontrunner, Nomadland, but I don’t think so.
• Who Should Win — The Trial of the Chicago 7, but the year’s best film was News of the World
• Who Might Upset — Mank

BEST DIRECTOR

• Chloe Zhao will win for Nomadland. Surest thing of the night as no one else really has a chance.

BEST ACTOR

• Who Will Win — Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Might Win — Anthony Hopkins in The Father
• Who Should Win — Delroy Lindo in Da Five Bloods but not nominated
• Who Might Upset — Steven Yeun in Minari

BEST ACTRESS 

• Who Will Win — Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman, at least I hope so.
• Who Might Win — Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Should Win — Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
• Who Might Upset — Frances McDormand in Nomadland or Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holliday

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Who Will Win — Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
• Who Might Win — Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
• Who Should Win — Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
• Who Might Upset — Paul Raci in Sound of Metal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Who Will Win — (I hope, I hope) Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Who Might Win — Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
• Who Should Win — Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
• Who Might Upset — Amanda Seyfried in Mank

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Who Will Win — Nomadland
• Who Might Win — The Father
• Who Should Win — Nomadland
• Who Might Upset — Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Who Will Win — The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Who Might Win — Promising Young Woman
• Who Should Win — The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Who Might Upset — Promising Young Woman

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Who Will Win — Nomadland
• Who Might Win — Mank
• Who Should Win — Mank
• Who Might Upset — Mank

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Who Will Win — Soul
• Who Might Win — Wolfwalkers
• Who Should Win — Soul
• Who Might Upset — Over the Moon

BEST COSTUMES DESIGN

• Who Will Win — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Might Win — Mank
• Who Should Win — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Might Upset — Mulan

BEST FILM EDITING

• Who Will Win — Sound of Metal
• Who might Win — Nomadland
• Who Should Win — Sound of Metal
• Who Might Upset — The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

• Who Will Win — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Might Win — Mank
• Who Should Win — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Might Upset — Hillbilly Elegy

BEST MUSICAL SCORE

• Who Will Win — Soul
• Who Might Win –– Mank
• Who Should Win — Da Five Bloods
• Who Might Upset —News of the World

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Who Will Win — The Midnight Sky
• Who Might Win — Love and Monsters
• Who Should Win — The Midnight Sky
• Who Might Upset — Tenet

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Who Will Win — Mank
• Who Might Win — Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Should Win — Mank
• Who Might Upset — News of the World

BEST SOUND

• Who Will Win — Sound of Metal
• Who Might Win — Soul
• Who Should Win — Sound of Metal
• Who Might Upset — Greyhound

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE (FORMERLY FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM)

• Who Will Win — Another Round (Denmark)
• Who Might Win — Better Days (Hong Kong)
• Who Should Win — Better Days (Hong Kong)
• Who Might Upset — any of the other three…

BEST SONG

• Who Will Win — “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Who Might Win — “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
• Who Should Win — “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Who Might Upset — “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah